Today’s guest blog is from Isadore Katz, CEO of CLK Design Automation. He has been in EDA for 20 years at Chrysalis, Cadence, Metasoft (Hspice) and even escaping EDA for a time as CEO of Lightchip before the gravitational pull of CLK brought him back in.
Four Companies Enter, Three Companies Leave
The current thinking these days is that anyone attempting an EDA start-up is an idiot. The VC’s are uninterested, exits are few and far between, and the chance of an IPO is zero. As the CEO of an EDA start-up company, I guess that makes me Idiot in Chief. So take everything I am about to say with a grain of salt; say the size of Grand Cooley Blog.
There are too many IC tool EDA companies. Not start-ups, there are always too many start-ups, but big IC EDA suppliers. Two is company, three’s a crowd, and four – four is just bad news. One of them has to go.
Both the semiconductor industry and EDA have to restructure in order to survive. The semiconductor houses must establish some level of pricing power with their customers. The world does not need 10 IC shops selling weakly differentiated wireless components to four handset manufacturers. Likewise the EDA industry needs to regain leverage. We do not need four major vendors supplying strained, front-to-back flows that get discounted to the point of oblivion.
Today all four EDA majors are trying to compete for the same business from the same 30 semiconductor shops, all of which are under severe margin pressure themselves. The result is an unmitigated disaster for all concerned.
Do the math. If four companies compete for 30 companies’ business, that averages out to 7.5 wins each. If 3 companies compete, its 10 wins each. More potential wins per major player means less discounting/higher revenue per customer, more top line revenue/bottom line profits and growth per major EDA vendor, and better industry performance. All of which should improve our image with investors, which ultimately should translate into improved market capitalization for all.
Why should the semiconductor companies care? Because the accountants’ persistent belief that EDA is a tax, and lots of inadequate, but heavily discounted, tools is a deal, is simply wrong. The real cost culprit is the difficulty of getting working silicon out of the tools. It is supposed to be electronic design automation, not 100 iteration, 50,000 lines of scripts per tool, sort-of-kind-of automation.
EDA’s job is to make the world’s most complicated version of Photoshop — including the camera/capture tools (but not the printer). There are at least 50 unique components to this flow. None of the big four does them all well. None of them can expect to maintain the level of innovation required to keep each of these at the leading edge needed for the latest process node. In fact, most of them have massive trailing edge commitments to customers that exist only as small font bullets in an archived PowerPoint presentation. Worse yet, some of them have a stunning trail of press releases promoting imaginary products. The current state of 4 major vendors with diminished pricing leverage and market caps will only perpetuate this condition.
With 3 healthier major EDA players, with market caps that reflect their revalue, focusing on what they do well, acquiring what they need, and making sure that producing 40nm and 32nm becomes practical and not just possible, maybe we have an industry.
Of course, I could be wrong. Even this may not be enough. In which case look for my future rant, “Three Companies enter, Two Companies leave.”
Earlier we had guest blog entries from
Executives from semiconductor companies regularly arrive in EDA companies convinced that their years of experience as customers mean that they understand the EDA business. Software people just need some of the discipline of semiconductor design, which the executive has plenty of, and a miraculous transformation will take place.
It used to be received wisdom that the way to get a good design flow was for a semiconductor company to purchase best-in-class point tools and then integrate them together themselves. I think there were two reasons for this. First, the EDA companies had grown from a lot of acquisitions so that’s what they had for sale: good point tools that were poorly integrated. Second, they were selling to CAD groups in an era when semiconductor was doing well and CAD groups liked to justify their existence by doing lots of evaluation (which point tool is best?) and then integrating them (need lots of people).
ESL, or electronic system level design, is a catchall term for tools above the level of RTL. There are two primary aspects to this: synthesis and verification of IC designs from representations higher than RTL (usually untimed C or System-C); and tools that do something to address development of the software component of electronic systems.
The tragedy of the commons is an
So what have you given up? A share of the future gains. You used to own 100% of the company with your partner, now you only own 2/3 of the company. If the company suddenly becomes worth $60M then you each have $20M and the VC has $20M (the VC has a preferred stock, which is different from what you and your partner probably have, so this might not be precisely accurate but it is close enough). What you gave up was that if the company was suddenly worth $60M before, you and your partner would have $30M each. But realistically, that wasn’t going to happen because you didn’t have enough money on your own to fund the company over time. So if this scenario plays out you get a nice payout. But, of course, if the company becomes worthless then everyone’s share goes to zero. 1/3 of zero is zero.
Our second guest blog comes from Chi-Ping Hsu, who is senior VP of R&D for the implementation group at Cadence. Chi-Ping echoes
Today’s we have two guest blogs. First Lauro Rizzatti, who is general manager of EVE-USA, an emulation company. Despite his Italian name, Lauro is the US manager of a French-based emulation company. He takes a look at whether small or large companies are the source of innovation in EDA. As an executive for a small company, he takes the small-is-beautiful side of the argument.